An update on Brexit risks and what we are doing about it

As the EU Referendum polling date nears, we thought we’d give a short update on markets and some changes we have made to our own positioning to address the risks involved. Firstly, we are glad to say that our core views have not changed from our original April Brexit review (Brexit – What we do […]

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What are the alternatives?

Is it the case that, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, that equities are the worst investment around apart from all the alternatives? We don’t think so for two reasons. First, there are still parts of the world where the scenarios for equity investing look fairly attractive and you can reasonably expect to make the 7%-9% or […]

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Brexit: What we do and don’t worry about

We have had several conversations with clients on what are the risks and the implications for our portfolios of Britain leaving the EU (a “Brexit” in the common media parlance which we will sadly follow for the rest of this note). This note summarises our view, why we think our portfolios are robust (even if […]

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How unusual are today’s markets?

Well, the year has certainly got off to a bang. And, unfortunately it’s the bad sort of bang. The US equity market (S&P 500) has fallen -10.5% peak to trough from its December high and the European equity market (Euro Stoxx 600) has fallen over -16%. We think the fact that this happened at the […]

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Some good news and some bad news

A couple of thoughts on markets after the nasty June to September equity market sell-off. I have two pieces of bad news and only one of good news, but the good news about the good news is that it is actually by far the most important of the three for longer term returns so please […]

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Market Update: August 2015

Given the recent big moves in equity markets we thought we’d give you an update on the markets as we see them today, what has been behind the moves and the opportunities we see for your portfolio today. First the drama: Chinese equity markets have fallen over 40% from their peak in June of this […]

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Beijing or Basingstoke?

Earlier in the year we compared the vineyards – and equity markets – of France and California, coming down on the French (and Eurozone’s) side. So far we are glad to say that view has proven profitable – France’s CAC index is +16% year to date as we write compared to a 1% gain for […]

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Current Opportunities

Even after the latest act of the Greek tragedy, equity markets are still showing solid gains for the year. Global equities (measured by the MSCI World total return index) are up +4% in sterling terms as we write. The UK, having lagged in 2014 is today +5.6%. 2015 is now turning into the fourth year […]

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No one remembers the 1970s

To have worked through the ‘70s you would have to be, say, 20 when the decade began. That would make you 65 today. Finance is notorious for the attrition rate on its employees and this means that there is, to a first approximation, very few working today who really remembers the 70s (myself included – […]

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