Donald Trump and Russian Roulette

Chris Brown, CIO, 2nd September 2016 Our favourite way at looking at the US election is via poll of poll data compiled by people like Nate Silver at At its recent highs, he estimated the probability of Hilary Clinton winning in November at 83% (see Chart 1 below). One way of looking at this […]

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Hindsight Is A Wonderful Thing….

Sometimes it would be helpful in this business to have a Delorean style time machine. Occasionally, though, it would do no good at all. If we had been able to magic forward to lunchtime on June 24th and see the result of the referendum vote and the impact it had on markets we would have […]

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The Morning After

The polls were right. In the end, what they predicted to be a tight 50/50 decision went the way of the Leave campaign. Financial and betting markets had expected that when people came to put pen to paper a preference for the status quo and the health of the economy would mean Remain would carry […]

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