Chris Brown, CIO, 2nd September 2016 Our favourite way at looking at the US election is via poll of poll data compiled by people like Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com. At its recent highs, he estimated the probability of Hilary Clinton winning in November at 83% (see Chart 1 below). One way of looking at this […]
Sometimes it would be helpful in this business to have a Delorean style time machine. Occasionally, though, it would do no good at all. If we had been able to magic forward to lunchtime on June 24th and see the result of the referendum vote and the impact it had on markets we would have […]
IPS Capital’s Partner and Chief Investment Office, Chris Brown, reviews our investment strategy and discusses his views for the future.
The polls were right. In the end, what they predicted to be a tight 50/50 decision went the way of the Leave campaign. Financial and betting markets had expected that when people came to put pen to paper a preference for the status quo and the health of the economy would mean Remain would carry […]
As the EU Referendum polling date nears, we thought we’d give a short update on markets and some changes we have made to our own positioning to address the risks involved. Firstly, we are glad to say that our core views have not changed from our original April Brexit review (Brexit – What we do […]
Is it the case that, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, that equities are the worst investment around apart from all the alternatives? We don’t think so for two reasons. First, there are still parts of the world where the scenarios for equity investing look fairly attractive and you can reasonably expect to make the 7%-9% or […]
We have had several conversations with clients on what are the risks and the implications for our portfolios of Britain leaving the EU (a “Brexit” in the common media parlance which we will sadly follow for the rest of this note). This note summarises our view, why we think our portfolios are robust (even if […]
Well, the year has certainly got off to a bang. And, unfortunately it’s the bad sort of bang. The US equity market (S&P 500) has fallen -10.5% peak to trough from its December high and the European equity market (Euro Stoxx 600) has fallen over -16%. We think the fact that this happened at the […]
In January 2016, Chris Brown, IPS Capital’s CIO spoke alongside BDO London at a well-attended STEP Guernsey conference. The core subjects related to tax legislation changes that will effect UK res/dom’s and the practical implications of managing money for this group. Chris’s piece, entitled Four Funerals and a Wedding, displayed some of the complications of […]
This year we decided to produce a short video, which we filmed shortly before Christmas with Chris Brown our Chief Investment Officer reviewing our recent performance and presenting themes in our outlook for 2016.
