IPS Wealth Archives

The Trump bump and the calendar year effect | Weekly Market Update

13 June, 2025

This week, two hall of fame charts (for asset allocators like me at least). But first a quick review of where we are. The economic… Read More

3 times in history when moving to cash may have been the wrong choice

9 June, 2025

You have likely read news about the Trump administration introducing tariffs on various countries and how this has affected global stock markets. As the US… Read More

Everything you need to know about putting life insurance in a trust

9 June, 2025

When you die, a payout from your life insurance policy could form part of your estate. As such, your beneficiaries may lose a significant portion… Read More

IPS Capital is nominated for multiple prestigious awards

9 June, 2025

Awards are an opportunity for the financial services profession to recognise the excellent support that wealth planners, investment managers, and firms offer their clients. We… Read More

A no-brainer investment that is now down 40%

6 June, 2025

I am travelling this week, so I thought I would mix it up and write a shorter note about a couple of things that have… Read More

A short review of the year so far | Weekly Market Update

30 May, 2025

I have written here about Trump (of course), tariffs, Rachel Reeves, national insurance increases, government bond deficits, interest rates and plenty of other headline-grabbing and… Read More

An attractive investment no one wants | Weekly Market Update

23 May, 2025

If I told you there was an investment that was mathematically guaranteed to beat inflation by 2.4% or so over the next 20 years, I… Read More

Why UK interest rates might stay high | Weekly Market Update

16 May, 2025

If you are worried that a recession might be on its way later this year then the newsflow and data this week should have given… Read More

An update on the UK | Weekly Market Update

9 May, 2025

If you are a UK mortgage borrower I’d guess your ideal update on the state of the UK economy would be: interest rates are coming… Read More

April in review | Weekly Market Update

2 May, 2025

The US S&P 500 and UK FTSE 100 indices both ended April down -0.7% for the month. If you’d taken a long Caribbean holiday in… Read More

USA vs Team Europe | Weekly Market Update

25 April, 2025

Apologies to golf fans (which would include me) but this is not a Ryder Cup themed post. Instead, I want to write about a drier… Read More

2025 Q1 Market Review

22 April, 2025

The first 3 months of the year already feel a long, long time Q1 saw an unwind of US post-election equity market euphoria: Trump looked… Read More

Common misconceptions around gifting and private school fees for parents and grandparents

22 April, 2025

The recent removal of the VAT exemption on private school fees means that many independent schools are now considerably more expensive. While some schools have… Read More

Spotlight on an IPS Capital team member: Tiziana Maida

22 April, 2025

At IPS Capital, every member of the team plays a crucial role in delivering the best possible service to our clients. While our wealth planners… Read More

Why new Inheritance Tax changes could mean that your pensions face a “double tax” in the future

22 April, 2025

Inheritance Tax (IHT) is a levy your beneficiaries might pay on the value of your estate when you die. Previously, pensions could be passed on… Read More

2025 Q1 ESG Market Review

17 April, 2025

Sustainability and financial returns: the case for senior care property The start of 2025 was both tumultuous for financial markets, with geopolitical tensions and trade… Read More

Tariffs, UK GDP and Mrs Lincoln | Weekly Market Update

11 April, 2025

I have in my head three basics scenarios for the Trump tariff saga: Trump doubles down, doesn’t get the deals he wants and tariffs end… Read More

What next after the Trump tariff shock | Weekly Market Update

8 April, 2025

Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face, Mike Tyson once famously said. On Wednesday last week Donald Trump punched the global… Read More

Wait and see | Weekly Market Update

28 March, 2025

This year has been an example of why it can be good to be diversified. Many investors’ highest conviction sector at the start of the… Read More

Private vs public markets | Weekly Market Update

14 March, 2025

The UK wealth market (i.e. my market) is primarily focussed on public investments. There are a couple of good reasons for this. First, public markets… Read More

Some MEGA market themes | Weekly Market Update

10 March, 2025

I normally try to keep my weekly notes brief as I assume we are all busy people and our attention spans are (unfortunately I think)… Read More

Don’t miss the deadline for protecting your pension benefit allowances – 5 April 2025

26 February, 2025

The Lifetime Allowance or LTA, i.e. the cap on total pension funds accumulated during your lifetime, was abolished from April 2024. Whilst this was great… Read More

Europe: a bear market rally or the start of something? | Weekly Market Update

21 February, 2025

Last year, the equity market theme was pretty simple. US markets (once again) led everyone else and the familiar US technology giants (once again) generated… Read More

When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen | Weekly Market Update

14 February, 2025

I sometimes have a dream where I somehow get to know all the headlines in advance so I can trade ahead of everyone else (who… Read More

Trump vs the Bank of England | Weekly Market Update

7 February, 2025

Three separate thoughts this week on markets covering Trump (of course), UK interest rates and some life in an unloved part of the UK market. Read More

Oil, gas and gold | Weekly Market Update

31 January, 2025

Having spiked in the first couple of weeks of January, bond yields are now back below where they started the year. Good! This means lower… Read More

Some good news for Contrarians | Weekly Market Update

24 January, 2025

I was listening to a replay of the annual Goldman Sachs Macro Conference in Asia this week. One of the questions they asked the physical… Read More

2024 Q4 ESG Market Review

20 January, 2025

Diversification for ESG portfolios: the case for Insurance-linked securities 2024 was a year of positive surprises for financial markets, with the S&P500 surging over 27%… Read More

2024 Q4 Market Review

20 January, 2025

Summary A strong global economy was the foundation for positive equity returns in 2024 and – absent the usual surprises and shocks – there is… Read More

Some good news for gilts | Weekly Market Update

17 January, 2025

I wrote in my 2025 outlook piece that one of the big risks for 2025 was that government bond yields continue to grind higher. This… Read More

Letter from the Managing Partner

15 January, 2025

The Partners and staff would like to wish all our clients, intermediaries, and prospective clients a happy and successful 2025. It was another reasonably strong… Read More

Bond markets are causing trouble again | Weekly Market Update

19 December, 2024

I wrote last week that it would probably be my last weekly note of the year as long as the markets stayed calm. Well, I’m… Read More

My four charts for 2024 | Weekly Market Update

13 December, 2024

Equities are continuing their low-volatility grind higher this quarter. As this is generally good for business I am not sure I want to jinx this… Read More

What we are worrying about for next year | Weekly Market Update

6 December, 2024

Equities normally go up and the economy usually grows at 2% to 3%. I think most annual investment outlooks could be reduced to that sentence… Read More

Achoo | Weekly Market Update

29 November, 2024

As this is a weekly note, I am always acutely aware of the issue of interest fatigue by the people who receive it. There are… Read More

A glass half-full market | Weekly Market Update

22 November, 2024

The markets are in a very glass half full mood at the moment. As our client portfolios are benefitting from this I am hardly complaining. Read More

Listening to what the markets are telling us | Weekly Market Update

15 November, 2024

My general macro view hasn’t really changed from what I wrote last week (which is here if that is what you are after). Instead,… Read More

Labour, Conservatives, they’re all just the same | Weekly Market Update

11 November, 2024

After the UK budget last week there was a fair amount of grumbling (from, I’d guess, people who didn’t vote Labour) that this was the… Read More

The market reaction to the UK budget | Weekly Market Update

1 November, 2024

My task this week is to write about the impact of the UK Budget on markets. The challenge is that there is – needless to… Read More

How does the Budget affect you?

31 October, 2024

Over the last 48 hours, we have all seen the headlines from Wednesday’s Autumn Budget delivered by Rachel Reeves. In this article, we dig a… Read More

Interest rates are marching higher again | Weekly Market Update

25 October, 2024

Government bond yields have been rising in the last few weeks. Another way of saying the same thing is that markets now expect fewer interest… Read More

The UK budget and the US election | Weekly Market Update

18 October, 2024

It is now less than 2 weeks to the Labour budget in the UK and less than 3 weeks to the US election. These two… Read More

2024 Q3 Market Review

15 October, 2024

Summary While stronger sterling (up 5.8% against the dollar for the quarter) limited some of the international gains for our UK investors, the macro backdrop… Read More

2024 Q3 ESG Market Review

15 October, 2024

Sustainable companies await discovery As we reflect on the market dynamics of the year so far, it’s clear that the “Magnificent 7” tech giants have… Read More

Where are UK and US interest rates heading? | Weekly Market Update

11 October, 2024

One thing I find useful to have in my head – not least for my own selfish personal finance reasons – is where UK interest… Read More

We are excited to announce that we have acquired Saffron Walden-based Greenwood Financial Planning LLP

8 October, 2024

Exclusive_ DFM has £1bn in sight with advice buy 2 … Read More

Pensions – what might happen in the UK Autumn Budget? Wealth Update

30 September, 2024

Numerous rumours have been circulating about the forthcoming budget. In this article, we concentrate on pensions and some of the options available to the Chancellor. Read More

Finally, some good news from China | Weekly Market Update

27 September, 2024

Probably the biggest macro development of the year happened this week and, for once, the news did not come out of the US. Instead China… Read More

Progress in AI | Weekly Market Update

20 September, 2024

Each quarter, I do a longer outlook and review note for clients. I sometimes think an AI could summarise these notes pretty succinctly as: if… Read More

Back to normal, and some comfort now summer is over | Weekly Market Update

13 September, 2024

The news flow was dominated by the US election this week. After a strong debate performance, Kamala Harris went from being a slight underdog to… Read More

The AI Investment Opportunity | Weekly Market Update

5 September, 2024

One question I am asked occasionally is what is the best way to invest to make the most of the current Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution. Read More

The year so far, and dressage | Weekly Market Update

16 August, 2024

This is my final weekly note before my summer break. It would be tempting to add the words “well earned” here but, while we have… Read More

Political Interference – Good or Bad? : Monthly ESG Update

9 August, 2024

Interested in ESG-relevant content? In this note I’ll highlight a few interesting stories that come across my desk each month. The first week of August… Read More

August Market Update

7 August, 2024

After a long period of unusual quietness in equity markets, the US S&P 500 equity Index fell -6% in the first 3 trading days of… Read More

Some thoughts on ESG investing | Weekly Market Update

5 August, 2024

The UK finally cut interest rates to 5% yesterday. I thought this was the right decision. Today’s major risk does not look to be inflation… Read More

The brave have (finally) got some reward | Weekly Market Update

29 July, 2024

I wrote last week that there was a consensus view that any Donald Trump import tariffs would be good for US equities, hurt non-US equities… Read More

US markets don’t seem to believe US economists | Weekly Market Update

19 July, 2024

Luckily, IPS is not (yet) a user of Microsoft Azure and 365. This means (unlike Sky News) I am able to keep on with my… Read More

2024 Q2 ESG Market Review

17 July, 2024

The Investment Trust Green Opportunity The Labour coalition has won a staggering majority in the July general election. I thought this was a good time… Read More

2024 Q2 Market Review

17 July, 2024

Summary • Inflation is (slowly) coming back under control. Economic growth remains steady and, if anything, looks to be improving in the UK and Europe. Read More

The Labour landslide and some thoughts on UK markets | Weekly Market Update

5 July, 2024

As expected, Labour have won their landslide. Given that they have been odds on to do this since the election was called in May the… Read More

How might pensions change under a Labour Government?

2 July, 2024

As we wait for the elections this week, many clients are wondering what they should be doing with their pensions. It appears the spectre of… Read More

Time to think about a Trump second term | Weekly Market Update

28 June, 2024

Following Joe Biden’s by all accounts catastrophic debate performance, it is time to think again about what a Trump presidency would look like for investment… Read More

Not much news is good news| Weekly Market Update

21 June, 2024

There doesn’t feel like there is much uncertainty hanging over markets right now. I haven’t mentioned the upcoming UK election in my weekly notes yet… Read More

Diversification is working again | Weekly Market Update

7 June, 2024

Of course, if I knew the best performing market over the next 10 years I would simply buy that and both our clients and I… Read More

What does it all mean | Weekly Market Update

31 May, 2024

Here I am, it’s Friday morning and I am writing my weekly note. I am not really someone who spends much time dwelling on questions… Read More

Echoes of the 2010s | Weekly Market Update

24 May, 2024

One of my abiding memories of the 2010s was that at the start of each year most forecasters (including me to the extent we had… Read More

A jargon filled weekly: “Stagflation” and “the Fed put”| Weekly Market Update

17 May, 2024

This week I thought I’d write about a couple of investment jargon phrases that get thrown around by people like me, namely “stagflation” and “the… Read More

3 things | Weekly Market Update

13 May, 2024

Often there is a disconnect between people’s own experience of something and how they think the thing is doing in general. Sometimes you see this… Read More

Renewable energy is a success story

3 May, 2024

The UK market hit all-time highs again this week, which put me in my mind of this quote from Peter Lynch: “Far more money has… Read More

This quarter’s best performing market is… | Weekly Market Update

30 April, 2024

This week I have some evidence that – in spite of what you may read in your normal daily newspaper – we do get some… Read More

Interest rates, inflation (again) and the outlook for the UK | Weekly Market Update

19 April, 2024

It’s a day with a Y in it so it’s probably time to write about interest rates and inflation again. Rather like the start of… Read More

2024 Q1 ESG Market Review

18 April, 2024

Why I want to own ESG in a recession The probability of a recession in 2024 according to Bloomberg consensus is 55 percent. This is far from the 70 percent predicted... Read More

2024 Q1 Market Review

18 April, 2024

Summary The global economy remains resilient and, if anything, we have recently seen signs of re-acceleration. Manufacturing looks to be recovering after a tough 2023… Read More

Why is the yen so weak? | Weekly Market Update

12 April, 2024

One question I asked in my overview for clients of the first quarter of the year (available, as always, on request) was how growth has… Read More

Maybe we aren’t that different after all | Weekly Market Update

10 April, 2024

I have just written our quarterly investment review and, as ever, it gives our take on what is going in investment markets and our outlook… Read More

This year’s other winners | Weekly Market Update

28 March, 2024

A free personal assistant for everyone and a weight loss drug that actually works. These are, I think, the most important developments of the last… Read More

Commercial property looks interesting again | Weekly Market

22 March, 2024

It was a big week for those of us with mortgages. The Bank of England met on Wednesday and it looks like the first interest… Read More

A (small) shot in the arm for the UK | Weekly Market Update

7 March, 2024

So the Chancellor did indeed introduce a ‘British ISA’. It was small (£5k per person) and will probably have a very limited impact as (i)… Read More

The potential impact of a British ISA | Weekly Market Update

5 March, 2024

Jeremy Hunt, the UK Chancellor, hinted this week that he might introduce a “British ISA” in this week’s budget. The aim would be to encourage… Read More

Nvidia vs Germany | Weekly Market Update

27 February, 2024

I write a lot here about inflation, interest rates and the economy. But this is (at best) half the story of what really moves markets. Read More

Just cut rates already | Weekly Market Update

20 February, 2024

If you awoke from a coma and someone told you that the UK economy was in recession and inflation was negative, I’d hope that you’d… Read More

Trump or Biden? | Weekly Market Update

12 February, 2024

I was sent a client question this week: who will be better for my investments Biden or Trump? This is a good question because there,… Read More

Market Update | IPS Capital Webinar

8 February, 2024

Simon Moriarty and Chris Brown discuss past performance of IPS and give an investment outlook for 2024. … Read More

Where are all the back-to-the-office people actually going? |Weekly Market Update

6 February, 2024

Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and Meta all reported earnings this week. The results were, on balance, pretty good. And this is in spite of all… Read More

Good news was good news this week | Weekly Market Update

30 January, 2024

The generally good economic data flow continued this week. For whatever reason, I have the early Blair years (so the late 90s) as being a… Read More

US Market Leadership (Part 2) | Weekly Market Update

23 January, 2024

The headline of my piece last week was “The US will not out-perform forever”. Headlines are of course designed to get people to read, but… Read More

The US will not out-perform forever | Weekly Market Update

16 January, 2024

10 years is a long time in this business. And for the last 10 years the US has outperformed the rest of the world handily. Read More

Forecasting is hard | Weekly Market Update

9 January, 2024

My weekly note started as three (sometimes unconnected) investment related data points that I thought were interesting enough to pass on. As time has passed… Read More

Letter from the Managing Partner

9 January, 2024

The Partners and staff wish all of our clients, intermediaries and prospective clients a happy and successful 2024. Looking back at 2023, our 15th year… Read More

Some good news for mortgage borrowers | Weekly Market Update

19 December, 2023

It’s been a big couple of weeks for inflation related data and I am pleased to be able to tell you that the numbers have… Read More

Now is the time for [insert cheap market here] to out-perform | Weekly Market Update

12 December, 2023

The person who coined the phrase “Santa rally” was only actually referring to the last 5 trading days of the year. November saw the 7th… Read More

3 charts and 3 facts that made me stop and think | Weekly Market Update

5 December, 2023

You are dealt a certain hand of cards in life and I have no complaints about mine. But I think my hand is probably well… Read More

Client mailbag | Weekly Market Update

28 November, 2023

I had two client questions in this week. Here they are: 1. Just the one outstanding question for IPS regarding the US: We have c. Read More

Fixing a broken toilet | Weekly Market Update

21 November, 2023

Asking economists for investment advice is like asking a physicist to fix a broken toilet. Not their field, though sort of related – Milton Friedman… Read More

The UK does look very cheap | Weekly Market Update

14 November, 2023

One thing about markets is that they train you to slowly ignore things that on the face of it look very strange. Then, once you’ve… Read More

I hope The Times and the BBC are wrong | Weekly Market Update

7 November, 2023

I have written here before about how front covers from The Economist magazine can often mark the end for a particular trend. One famous example… Read More

Israel/Hamas and markets | Weekly Market Update

31 October, 2023

Plenty has already been written about the new war in the Middle East between Hamas and Israel. I do not mean to add much to… Read More

Crested newts, house prices and employment | Weekly Market Update

23 October, 2023

IPS did their annual volunteering day at an urban farm in Spitalfields yesterday. As I was mucking out the donkey stables, the staff told me… Read More

The difference between perfection and bad luck is less than you think | Weekly Market Update

17 October, 2023

This week: how active should you be as an investor? I think there are broadly two sorts of activity. One is jumping in and out… Read More

2023 Q3 Market Review

11 October, 2023

Summary The peak for interest rates looks to be in (or nearly in) at 5.25% in the UK and 5.5% in the US. This is… Read More

2023 Q3 ESG Market Review

11 October, 2023

Why I want to own ESG in a recession The probability of a recession in 2024 according to Bloomberg consensus is 55 percent. This is far from the 70 percent predicted... Read More

The Yin and Yang of China | Weekly Market Update

10 October, 2023

I wrote our quarterly outlook piece this week which covered the major markets we invest in (equities, fixed income and alternatives) and how they look… Read More

Echoes of 2022 | Weekly Market Update

2 October, 2023

2022 was a very tough year for investors, with bonds and equities both falling in tandem for much of the year. September has had echoes… Read More

The UK continues to walk the tightrope | Weekly Market Update

26 September, 2023

Plenty of data from the UK this week. For the third month in a row inflation was broadly in line with the Bank of England’s… Read More

Selling my parents’ house | Weekly Market Update

19 September, 2023

My parents want to sell their house. They live in the country and, as they get older, want something that is more walkable to the… Read More

Is it now (finally) time for Japan? | Weekly Market Update

14 September, 2023

Japanese equities are up 25% so far this year. This makes them the second-best market we track (coming after the US Nasdaq market which had… Read More

Back to school | Weekly Market Update

12 September, 2023

My daughter is still (just) young enough to be half dreading, half looking forward to going back to school. My gut feel is these coming… Read More

An update on the year so far | Weekly Market Update

8 August, 2023

This is my last weekly note before my summer break. I therefore thought I’d look back on the year we have had so far. I… Read More

Being very rich is expensive | Weekly Market Update

31 July, 2023

This week, a glance into what it is like to be very rich. One of the themes of the last decade has been the resilience… Read More

Some good news for the UK and the over 40s | Weekly Market Update

25 July, 2023

Finally, some good inflation news out of the UK this week. We saw a relief rally in UK government bonds (up 1.6% so far this… Read More

It’s inflation again this week | Weekly Market Update

17 July, 2023

I wrote our quarterly investment review last week. This is our more detailed review of the first half of the year and our outlook for… Read More

2023 Q2 ESG Market Review

12 July, 2023

The untimely rise of anti-ESG sentiment Our clients will already know that over the past decade we have seen accelerating momentum around ESG disclosure and… Read More

2023 Q2 Market Review

12 July, 2023

Summary 2023 has continued to surprise forecasters. Equities rose inQ2 as the much-anticipated slowdown has yet to materialise. The global economy has been remarkably resilient… Read More

UK exceptionalism and why I want it to end | Weekly Market Update

4 July, 2023

I wrote last week about how we weren’t – even with rates at 5% or more – putting much cash on deposit for clients. Read More

How attractive is cash today? | Weekly Market Update

28 June, 2023

UK interest rates hit 5% last week and are now expected to rise to over 6% by the end of the year. One fair question… Read More

A tale of two inflations | Weekly Market Update

20 June, 2023

For much of the 2010s central banks kept cutting interest rates and buying bonds to try and pump money into the economy to boost growth. Read More

Why is oil becoming cheaper? | Weekly Market Update

13 June, 2023

Last weekend OPEC met and Saudi Arabia announced an oil production cut of 1m barrels per day. This is on top of a 2m barrels… Read More

China stick or twist? | Weekly Market Update

6 June, 2023

Probably the biggest disappointment for investors so far this year has been China. At the end of 2022, being overweight China as it (finally) released… Read More

Why is UK inflation still high? | Weekly Market Update

30 May, 2023

This week it is my favourite two topics, inflation and sex. On the first one, inflation numbers came out of the UK this week and… Read More

Are fewer people working from home? | Weekly Market Update

23 May, 2023

Equity markets have (and continue to be) stronger and less volatile than many of us thought possible at the beginning of the year. There is… Read More

Would sterling’s recent strength continue? | Weekly Market Update

16 May, 2023

We had a question from a client this week on whether we thought sterling’s recent strength would continue. I’d guess this was in part inspired… Read More

What is the story behind the UK equity market? | Weekly Market Update

9 May, 2023

When I look at our top two performing equity managers this year I see: (i) a global manager with a focus on high quality, defensive… Read More

Would you rather bet on China or India over the next 10 years? | Weekly Market Update

2 May, 2023

I take it we are all happy living in a democracy? When I was young there was a popular TV show called Citizen Smith whose… Read More

Why is inflation so much higher in the UK than it is in Europe? | Weekly Market Overview

24 April, 2023

Why is inflation so much higher in the UK than it is in Europe? This week I give two answers to that question (one which… Read More

2023 Q1 Market Review

18 April, 2023

Summary The biggest concern in 2022 was that inflation – and the interest rate rises needed to tame it – would keep spiralling out of… Read More

2023 Q1 ESG Market Review

18 April, 2023

The role of improvers for Climate Transition One of the crucial takeaways from COP27– the annual climate summit held last November in Sharm El Sheikh… Read More

Holiday Look Back | Weekly Market Overview

17 April, 2023

I am away on holiday this week. This time – and this has not always been the case in the past few years – the… Read More

ChatGPT, population growth and outsourcing | CIO’s notes

3 April, 2023

One of the things I was taught as a child was that you should not discuss religion, politics, sex or money in polite society. Given… Read More

A solution to the Credit Suisse problem | Weekly market overview

27 March, 2023

I normally write these notes on a Friday morning. Since my last missive another bank – Credit Suisse – has failed. The first bank to… Read More

Credit Suisse on the line | Weekly market overview

20 March, 2023

Well, a lot can happen in a week. Since I last wrote seven days ago two US banks have failed, one of which is… Read More

Spring Budget 2023 and what it means for pensions

16 March, 2023

A commentary from Anne McClean, Head of Wealth at IPS Capital: Jeremy Hunt made two big announcements regarding pensions in yesterday’s budget. The Lifetime Allowance… Read More