Trade War Tensions

Ros Price, Investment Committee Member. Donald Trump was elected President of the US in part because of his powerful slogan that put ‘America first’ and his strong belief that the rest of the world has been treating the US badly and indeed, unfairly, in terms of trade. Some may find this assertion strange given the […]

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What if a hard Brexit actually happens?

Chris Brown, Chief Investment Officer With six months to go, we thought it would be a good time to take stock of where we are on Brexit and the implications the different possible outcomes would have on our portfolios and returns. From a market perspective, a fudgy, compromisey, typically European style deal which pleases no […]

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Q1 2018 Investment Review and 2018 Outlook

2017 turned out to be an unusually quiet year for financial markets. Politics was as rumbustious and headline making as always but markets generally look through this unless someone somewhere is about to do something really stupid (like start a trade war, of which more below). Meanwhile, the news from the economy was of strong […]

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Q4 2017 Investment Review

Our outlook at the start of 2018 is pretty similar to the one we had at the start of 2017. We know that equity markets have come a long way since the lows of 2009 and we know that we are probably nearer the end of the current economic cycle (which is now over seven […]

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Priceless – Tidings of Comfort & Joy

Ros Price, Investment Committee Member. It’s the time of year when – at least until MiFID ll rule changes allow starting next January – when fund managers have inboxes deluged with the outlook for next year. Most make quite turgid reading I am sorry to say and that’s not just the content, but the writing […]

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Priceless – Be Careful What You Wish For…

Ros Price, Investment Committee Member. Following the Great Financial Crash of 2007/8 here in the UK, inflation first rose above the Bank of England’s 2% target as the economy struggled to come to grips with the calamity that had befallen it. Interest rates were slashed globally and unconventional monetary policies were introduced by central banks […]

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Q4 2016 Investment Review

It feels like for maybe half the developed world, 2016 was a year to forget. For the other half, it was a year where the people finally took back some control from the unelected elites. Wherever you sit in this divide, we thought we would start this update with a review of 2016 and what […]

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Priceless… on predictions and four letter words

Ros Price, Investment Committee member. It’s that time of year again – no, not just the annual spending jamboree that is the modern day Christmas Season – the time when investment professionals are asked to dust down their crystal balls and make predictions about where markets will be at the close of 2017. Occasionally some people […]

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Donald Trump and Russian Roulette

Chris Brown, CIO, 2nd September 2016 Our favourite way at looking at the US election is via poll of poll data compiled by people like Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com. At its recent highs, he estimated the probability of Hilary Clinton winning in November at 83% (see Chart 1 below). One way of looking at this […]

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